The Future of Freshwater: Part II

Freshwater is essential for survival. Without freshwater, the Earth would be an entirely different place. The supply and demand of freshwater is becoming very uneven, and it is not correcting itself. One day, freshwater could be traded like oil if the current conditions go unchanged. There are four main issues that are hurting the imbalance of freshwater supply and demand, which include: drought, growing consumption, failing infrastructure, and falling water levels in lakes and rivers. If these problems can be subdued and solutions are imposed, freshwater’s future will improve.

Drought

Many civilizations have vanished because of drought, including the great Mayan civilization of Central America. Globally, drought has become an increasing problem. According to MSNBC, 8 million crops were seriously affected by drought in early 2009 in China. China’s Henan province, a large producer of wheat, went 105 days without water. The water distribution is very uneven in China. The North is rain stricken while the South is flood prone. Droughts costs the Chinese government millions of dollars each year in lost farming productivity.

According to the Earth Observatory of NASA, “From mid-November 2008 through mid-February 2009, unusual weather patterns brought extreme temperatures and low rainfall to this normally productive agricultural region (South America).” This period is critical for many crops, including cotton, wheat, soy, and corn. As a result, crop yields in the three countries were expected to dip, with Argentina suffering the worst blow.”

Both North and South America are currently experiencing drought. 31% of the US is in some form of drought and 11% of US crops have been damaged by the drought. Texas is encountering its worst drought in 50 years.

Africa is also suffering from uncommon drought. James Hurrell of the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research expressed, “Changes in the Indian and Atlantic oceans are causing climate change in Africa and will have ripple effects on people and the environment.” By 2050, Monsoons that bring seasonal rain to sub-Saharan Africa could be 10-20% drier because of these climate changes.

Growing consumption

The consumption of freshwater is growing at an alarming rate. The primary issue is there is no substitute for water. Over the next twenty years, the global consumption of freshwater is on pace to double.

Nicholas Vardy, editor of The Global Guru, says that by 2050, 4 billion people, almost half of the world’s population, will live in areas that are chronically short of water. In the US, water demand tripled in the past 30 years, while the population only doubled.

An important factor in the growing consumption of freshwater is the equally fast growing consumption of food. All food uses some sort of freshwater. 40% of US water withdrawals are used for crop irrigation according to Colorado State University. That equates to 137,000 million gallons daily. While protein is becoming more popular among Asian diets, the demand for meat is rising, and in turn, so will grain demand followed by irrigation demand.

Failing infrastructure

The world’s water infrastructure is very old. In the US, the American Works Association estimates that $250 billion is needed over the next 30 years to repair wornout water pipes. The AWA said, “The oldest cast iron pipes, dating to the late 1800s, have an average life expectancy of about 120 years. Because of changing materials and manufacturing techniques, pipes laid in the 1920s have an average life expectancy of about 100 years, and pipes laid in the post-World War II boom can be expected to last about 75 years.” All of those pipes are due for updating within the next 30 years.

A 2009 report from America’s Civil Engineers stated, “Close to 50% of all leaks are from inferior post-war pipes, while 15-45% of drinking water is lost to leaks, and nearly 300,000 of the 900,000 miles of water mains break per year in the US.” The US water system faces an annual shortfall of at least $11 billion to replace aging facilities. In addition, seven billion gallons of drinking water are lost through leaky pipes daily.

Falling water levels in lakes and rivers

Lakes and rivers are also loosing water at an increased rate. Rivers and lakes are decreasing in water because their sources, aquifers, and being pumped or drained. More than half of the world’s population lives on a falling aquifer.

Lester Brown is the president of the Earth Policy Institute, which is dedicated to building a sustainable future as well as providing a plan of how to get from here to there through its Plan B 3.0. According to Brown:

"There are two types of aquifers: replenishable and nonreplenishable (or fossil) aquifers. Most of the aquifers in India and the shallow aquifer under the North China Plain are replenishable. When these are depleted, the maximum rate of pumping is automatically reduced to the rate of recharge. For fossil aquifers, such as the vast U.S. Ogallala aquifer, the deep aquifer under the North China Plain, or the Saudi aquifer, depletion brings pumping to an end. Farmers who lose their irrigation water have the option of returning to lower-yield dryland farming if rainfall permits. In more arid regions, however, such as in the southwestern United States or the Middle East, the loss of irrigation water means the end of agriculture.”

Many rivers do not make it to the ocean anymore before they are depleted. In the US, the Colorado River rarely makes it to the ocean because it supplies Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Nevada, and California with freshwater. Geography professor, Garry Running of the University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire explained, “There is only so much that can be provided by the Colorado and other rivers in the region to offset groundwater shortages. All of the water, surface and groundwater, is over-allocated. There is no spare water.”

The Nile is also dammed up to supply freshwater to the Middle East and Africa. Now, 1/16th of the river water reaches the sea compared to before it was dammed.

The Aral Sea is a prime example of a body of water that has lost significant water. The Amu River in Central Asia has been designated to so much irrigation that the Aral Sea has split in two on occasion because its source cannot replenish it.

The future

Between drought, growing consumption, failing infrastructures, and falling river and lake levels, Earth is on pace to use up all of its freshwater. The demand is growing much faster than its supply. Soon people will understand how important and vital freshwater is, and these demands may then change over time.

The concluding portion of the Future of Freshwater will highlight the solutions available to help the imbalance of freshwater supply and demand.

Read more about freshwater, agriculture, and farmland at Farmland Forecast (http://farmlandforecast.colvin-co.com/).