Jim Rogers: China's Water Problem

What worries me in China, I mean revolution, civil war, famine, none of that worries me.

What worries me is water. Because if they run out of water, and they have a stupendous water problem, then it is the end of the story.

You can survive a war, you can survive an epidemic but you cannot survive if the water runs out. THen you have to leave.

India even has a worse water problem than China.

Things like water treatment stocks in China have to boom.

Jim Rogers is a legendary investor known for his ability to predict major long term trends in several markets. Jim trades and tracks commodities, stocks, futures and interest rates all over the world. Jim has travelled extensively around the world and has written some of the best investment books available for traders. His latest book is a Bull in China, a book about the chinese stock market.

http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/03/chinas-water-problem.html

The Future of Freshwater: Part II

Freshwater is essential for survival. Without freshwater, the Earth would be an entirely different place. The supply and demand of freshwater is becoming very uneven, and it is not correcting itself. One day, freshwater could be traded like oil if the current conditions go unchanged. There are four main issues that are hurting the imbalance of freshwater supply and demand, which include: drought, growing consumption, failing infrastructure, and falling water levels in lakes and rivers. If these problems can be subdued and solutions are imposed, freshwater’s future will improve.

Drought

Many civilizations have vanished because of drought, including the great Mayan civilization of Central America. Globally, drought has become an increasing problem. According to MSNBC, 8 million crops were seriously affected by drought in early 2009 in China. China’s Henan province, a large producer of wheat, went 105 days without water. The water distribution is very uneven in China. The North is rain stricken while the South is flood prone. Droughts costs the Chinese government millions of dollars each year in lost farming productivity.

According to the Earth Observatory of NASA, “From mid-November 2008 through mid-February 2009, unusual weather patterns brought extreme temperatures and low rainfall to this normally productive agricultural region (South America).” This period is critical for many crops, including cotton, wheat, soy, and corn. As a result, crop yields in the three countries were expected to dip, with Argentina suffering the worst blow.”

Both North and South America are currently experiencing drought. 31% of the US is in some form of drought and 11% of US crops have been damaged by the drought. Texas is encountering its worst drought in 50 years.

Africa is also suffering from uncommon drought. James Hurrell of the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research expressed, “Changes in the Indian and Atlantic oceans are causing climate change in Africa and will have ripple effects on people and the environment.” By 2050, Monsoons that bring seasonal rain to sub-Saharan Africa could be 10-20% drier because of these climate changes.

Growing consumption

The consumption of freshwater is growing at an alarming rate. The primary issue is there is no substitute for water. Over the next twenty years, the global consumption of freshwater is on pace to double.

Nicholas Vardy, editor of The Global Guru, says that by 2050, 4 billion people, almost half of the world’s population, will live in areas that are chronically short of water. In the US, water demand tripled in the past 30 years, while the population only doubled.

An important factor in the growing consumption of freshwater is the equally fast growing consumption of food. All food uses some sort of freshwater. 40% of US water withdrawals are used for crop irrigation according to Colorado State University. That equates to 137,000 million gallons daily. While protein is becoming more popular among Asian diets, the demand for meat is rising, and in turn, so will grain demand followed by irrigation demand.

Failing infrastructure

The world’s water infrastructure is very old. In the US, the American Works Association estimates that $250 billion is needed over the next 30 years to repair wornout water pipes. The AWA said, “The oldest cast iron pipes, dating to the late 1800s, have an average life expectancy of about 120 years. Because of changing materials and manufacturing techniques, pipes laid in the 1920s have an average life expectancy of about 100 years, and pipes laid in the post-World War II boom can be expected to last about 75 years.” All of those pipes are due for updating within the next 30 years.

A 2009 report from America’s Civil Engineers stated, “Close to 50% of all leaks are from inferior post-war pipes, while 15-45% of drinking water is lost to leaks, and nearly 300,000 of the 900,000 miles of water mains break per year in the US.” The US water system faces an annual shortfall of at least $11 billion to replace aging facilities. In addition, seven billion gallons of drinking water are lost through leaky pipes daily.

Falling water levels in lakes and rivers

Lakes and rivers are also loosing water at an increased rate. Rivers and lakes are decreasing in water because their sources, aquifers, and being pumped or drained. More than half of the world’s population lives on a falling aquifer.

Lester Brown is the president of the Earth Policy Institute, which is dedicated to building a sustainable future as well as providing a plan of how to get from here to there through its Plan B 3.0. According to Brown:

"There are two types of aquifers: replenishable and nonreplenishable (or fossil) aquifers. Most of the aquifers in India and the shallow aquifer under the North China Plain are replenishable. When these are depleted, the maximum rate of pumping is automatically reduced to the rate of recharge. For fossil aquifers, such as the vast U.S. Ogallala aquifer, the deep aquifer under the North China Plain, or the Saudi aquifer, depletion brings pumping to an end. Farmers who lose their irrigation water have the option of returning to lower-yield dryland farming if rainfall permits. In more arid regions, however, such as in the southwestern United States or the Middle East, the loss of irrigation water means the end of agriculture.”

Many rivers do not make it to the ocean anymore before they are depleted. In the US, the Colorado River rarely makes it to the ocean because it supplies Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Nevada, and California with freshwater. Geography professor, Garry Running of the University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire explained, “There is only so much that can be provided by the Colorado and other rivers in the region to offset groundwater shortages. All of the water, surface and groundwater, is over-allocated. There is no spare water.”

The Nile is also dammed up to supply freshwater to the Middle East and Africa. Now, 1/16th of the river water reaches the sea compared to before it was dammed.

The Aral Sea is a prime example of a body of water that has lost significant water. The Amu River in Central Asia has been designated to so much irrigation that the Aral Sea has split in two on occasion because its source cannot replenish it.

The future

Between drought, growing consumption, failing infrastructures, and falling river and lake levels, Earth is on pace to use up all of its freshwater. The demand is growing much faster than its supply. Soon people will understand how important and vital freshwater is, and these demands may then change over time.

The concluding portion of the Future of Freshwater will highlight the solutions available to help the imbalance of freshwater supply and demand.

Read more about freshwater, agriculture, and farmland at Farmland Forecast (http://farmlandforecast.colvin-co.com/).

The World’s Water Crisis

by Brian C. Howard

At the recent G8 summit in Evian, France, delegates met to discuss, among other issues, how to provide safe drinking water to the 1.5 billion of the world’s citizens who live without it. Everyone within the summit gates enjoyed the free and plentiful bottled mineral water. “It’s obscene,” says one journalist who attended the conference, held near the source of one of the world’s most famous bottled water brands. “How can they not see that holding the summit in this place and talking about water in Africa is tasteless. It’s beyond comprehension.”

In fact, although many people might agree philosophically with Mikhail Gorbachev when he said, “Clean water is a universal human right,” the world is sharply divided in terms of access to safe hydration. Those who can afford it are guzzling ever-increasing numbers of designer water bottles, while half the world’s population lacks basic sanitation facilities, according to the United Nations (UN). Diseases caused by unsanitary water kill five to 12 million people a year, most of them women and children. A child dies every eight seconds from a preventable water-borne disease.

Only one-hundredth of one percent of the blue planet’s water is readily accessible for human use. The World Resources Institute (WRI) estimates that 2.3 billion people currently live in “water-stressed areas.” Hydrologists cite much of Africa, northern China, pockets of India, Mexico, the Middle East and parts of western North America as regions facing severe water shortages. Some of the world’s largest cities, including Mexico City, Bangkok and Jakarta, have severely over-pumped their groundwater aquifers.

As world population continues to increase, water scarcity will affect two out of every three people by 2025, according to UN estimates. In the 20th century, demand for fresh water grew twice as fast as population. This imbalance is largely due to industrial agriculture, but is also a product of unequal development in standards of living versus sound water management. 

Additionally, scientists at Harvard University point out that global warming could significantly harm water availability. A warmer atmosphere could lead to higher rates of evaporation, causing droughts and more severe weather. Faster runoff rates and slower infiltration of groundwater could follow. Warmer water may also promote detrimental algal and microbial blooms, which may lead to more water-borne illnesses. And ironically, as the climate heats up, people will want to use more water for drinking, bathing and watering plants.

“The next world war will be over water,” says Vice President Ismail Serageldin of the World Bank. Even now, some competition is beginning to build between (and within) nations over finite water resources. Egypt has watched warily as Ethiopia has built hundreds of dams on the Nile. Syria and Iraq have squabbled over water projects with Turkey, and some of Israel’s many conflicts with Jordan and the Palestinians have been over water issues. Botswana raised a public outcry after Namibia announced emergency drought plans to divert water from the Okavango River.

Certain regions of the United States, including the Colorado and Rio Grande River Basins, also suffer ominous shortages. Much of the West’s integral agriculture, livestock and recreation industries have been seriously threatened by water scarcity, and the region has endured catastrophic wildfire seasons. At the same time, sprawling development is threatening critical watershed areas throughout the world. Elizabeth Ainsley Campbell, executive director of the Nashua River Watershed Association, warns, “Unless we become more proactive in planning for growth and setting aside open space, our drinking water will be increasingly vulnerable to pollution from fertilizers, insecticides, fuel byproducts and other chemicals associated with commercial and residential development.”

Groundwater is similarly under siege. Over-pumping and rising sea levels have resulted in falling, and saltwater-invaded, water tables. Initial remediation of the 300,000 contaminated groundwater sites in the U.S. will cost up to $1 trillion over the next 30 years, according to the National Research Council.Water scarcity is also a serious threat to natural ecosystems. “Watersheds with the highest biological value, as measured by the number of endemic bird and fish species, are also generally the most degraded,” says Carmen Revenga of the WRI. “Many biologically rich watersheds—particularly in Southeast Asia and China—also have high population densities, high levels of modified and irrigated land, and high rates of deforestation, especially in tropical areas,” she says. In the U.S., 37 percent of freshwater fish are at risk of extinction, 51 percent of crayfish and 40 percent of amphibians are imperiled or vulnerable, and 67 percent of freshwater mussels are extinct or vulnerable to extinction.

Fleecing the Third World

In much of the Third World, municipal water systems often serve only cities or primarily upper- and middle-class residents (who typically pay very low fees for use), while recurrent revenue problems inhibit increases or upgrades in service. As a result, as Christian Aid journalist Andrew Pendleton puts it, “The only water that is available to many poor people free of charge lies in festering pools and contains killer diseases such as cholera.” Pendleton continues, “If poor parents want to ensure their children will not die as a result of diarrhea, they must pay through the nose for water from private vendors or tankers.”

Some people in developing countries are increasingly turning to bottled water to meet their daily needs, a red flag for some critics. World consumption of bottled water is growing at seven percent a year, with the largest increases in the Asia Pacific region. U.S. News & World Report recently concluded, “The drive toward bottled water and filters will, however, widen the gap between the haves and have-nots.” For one thing, as Pendleton points out, poor people in need may be charged more per gallon of clean water than those in developed nations. Many families in Ghana spend 10 to 20 percent of their income on water.

Also, since many countries lack the infrastructure to recycle used water bottles, the containers end up further polluting the local water sources. In Nepal, for example, water bottles tossed aside by trekkers have caused a serious litter problem, since the government can’t afford to cart them out of remote areas.Many activists have also protested aggressive bottling operations in the developing world. In Brazil, Nestlé offers Latin Americans a brand of bottled water called Nestlé Pure Life. But as Paul Constance of the Inter-American Development Bank points out, “Though it looks much like the bottled mineral water long offered in restaurants and upscale supermarkets, Pure Life is different. It is drawn from local water sources, has an aggressively low price, and is marketed specifically ‘to meet the needs of people who have daily difficulty in access to quality water.’” One Pure Life bottling plant was established on a popular and ecologically sensitive mineral spring, prompting fierce opposition.

In Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, only 10 percent of homes have tap water, even though the local groundwater reserves are thought to host enough capacity for every resident. The public water system struggles from serious disrepair and a chronic lack of funding. Recently, some entrepreneurs began drawing water from a network of private wells and trucking it to tank owners, who then sell the precious liquid to families at a huge profit. Constance says it is not uncommon for “legal or illegal private providers to make handsome profits by trucking or carting water into the poorest neighborhoods.” Many people have to carry water bottles great distances.

Clearly, the world is approaching a water crisis. Watersheds and municipal systems must be secured from rising threats. And some wonder if bottled water quenches human greed far better than human thirst.

http://www.emagazine.com/view/?1127&printview&imagesoff&src=QHA326

Water Now More Valuable Than Oil?

Savvy Investors and Successful Companies are Turning Water Into Gold

The most valuable commodity in the world today, and likely to remain so for much of this century, is not oil, not natural gas, not even some type of renewable energy. It’s water—clean, safe, fresh water.

Follow the Money

When you want to spot emerging trends, always follow the money. Today, many of the world’s leading investors and most successful companies are making big bets on water. Do a little research, and it’s easy to see why. There simply isn’t enough freshwater to go around, and the situation is expected to get worse before it gets better.

According to Bloomberg News, the worldwide scarcity of usable water worldwide already has made water more valuable than oil. The Bloomberg World Water Index, which tracks 11 utilities, has returned 35 percent to investors every year since 2003, compared with 29 percent for oil and gas stocks and 10 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

"There is only one direction for water prices at the moment, and that's up," said Hans Peter Portner, who manages a $2.9 billion US Water Fund at Pictet Asset Management in Geneva, according to a report by Bloomberg News. The value of the fund increased 26 percent in 2005, and Portner expects water to provide 8 percent annual returns through 2020.

If global warming continues to melt glaciers in the polar regions, as expected, the supply of freshwater may actually decrease. First, freshwater from the melting glaciers will mingle with saltwater in the oceans and become too salty to drink. Second, the increased ocean volume will cause sea levels to rise, contaminating freshwater sources along coastal regions with seawater.The United Nations estimates that by 2050 more than two billion people in 48 countries will lack sufficient water. Approximately 97 percent to 98 percent of the water on planet Earth is saltwater (the estimates vary slightly depending on the source). Much of the remaining freshwater is frozen in glaciers or the polar ice caps. Lakes, rivers and groundwater account for about 1 percent of the world’s potentially usable freshwater.

Freshwater Becoming More Scarce

Complicating matters even further is that 95 percent of the world’s cities continue to dump raw sewage into rivers and other freshwater supplies, making them unsafe for human consumption.

The Need for Freshwater is Increasing Rapidly

Yet, while freshwater supplies are at best static, and at worst decreasing, the world’s population is growing rapidly. The United Nations estimates that the world population—approximately 6.5 billion in 2006—will grow to 9.4 billion by 2050.

Companies Investing in WaterThe cost of water is usually set by government agencies and local regulators. Water isn't traded on commodity exchanges, but many utilities stocks are publicly traded. Meanwhile, investments in companies that provide desalinization, and other processes and technologies that may increase the world’s supply of freshwater, are growing rapidly.

General Electric Chairman Jeffrey Immelt said the scarcity of clean water around the world will more than double GE’s revenue from water purification and treatment by 2010—to a total of $5 billion.

GE’s strategy is for its water division to invest in desalinization and purification in countries that have a shortage of freshwater. Saudi Arabia is expected to invest more than $80 billion in desalinization plants and sewer facilities by 2025 to meet the needs of its growing population. And while China is home to 20 percent of the world’s people, only 7 percent of the planet’s freshwater supply is located there.

"This will be a big and growing market for a long time," Immelt said at the GE annual meeting in Philadelphia in April 2006.

http://environment.about.com/od/globalwarming/a/waterinvesting.htm

Freshwater Society: Water Facts

Minnesotans used 1.4 trillion gallons of water in 2007. The electrical power industry used 839 billion gallons, mostly for pass-through cooling. Public waterworks used 227 billion gallons. Industries - led by mines and paper producers -- used 167 billion gallons. Farmers and other users pumped 167 billion gallons for irrigation. None of the totals includes many small - less than 10,000 gallons a day or 1 million gallons a year -- private wells that are not required to report their water usage to the state.

A person can live weeks without food, but only days without water.

University of California at Davis "Scripts," January 2001. Quoted at "Water Facts," www.water.org

A person needs 4 to 5 gallons of water per day to survive.

The Sphere Project Handbook "Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response." Quoted at "Water Facts," www.water.org. Les Roberts "Diminishing Standards: How Much Water Do We Need?" {in Forum: Water and War, International Committee of the Red Cross 1988.] Quoted at "Water Facts," www.water.org.

The average American individual uses 100 to 176 gallons of water at home each day. The average African family uses about 5 gallons of water each day.

U . S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet "Water Q&A: Water Use at Home." Quoted at "Water Facts," www.water.org World Resources Institute, 1988-99 and 1996-97. "A Guide to the Global Environment." Quoted at "Water Facts," www.water.org.

Every 15 seconds, a child dies from a water-related disease.

Estimate derived from statistics in 2006 United Nations Human Development Report. Quoted at "Water Facts," www.water.org.

Across the world, water-related diseases are the leading cause of death for children under the age of 5.

World Health Organization. World Health Report 2003. Quoted at "Water Facts," www.water.org.

At any given time, half the world's hospital beads are occupied by patient suffering from water-related diseases.

2006 United Nations Human Development Report. Quoted at "Water Facts," www.water.org

We are fortunate to live in a region where we are literally surrounded by water. But freshwater is much more precious than you may realize.

Nearly 97 percent of the world's water is saltwater or otherwise undrinkable. Another 2 percent is held in ice caps and glaciers. That leaves just one percent for all of humanity's needs - agricultural, residential, industrial, etc. - as freshwater. (United States Geological Survey)

Additionally, there is approximately the same amount of water on Earth today as there was when the Earth was formed. Water is continually recycled in the Earth's hydrologic cycle. Just think - the dinosaurs once drank the same water molecules that we drink today.

Water serves several functions. It regulates the temperature of the human body, carries nutrients and oxygen to cells, cushions joints, and protects organs and tissues. The human brain is 75 percent water. Human blood is 83 percent water and bones are 25 percent water. (American Water Works Association)

Water is also vital to the health of our planet, regulating Earth's temperature. Each day, the sun evaporates 1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion) tons of water. (United States Geological Survey)

In a 100-year period, an average water molecule spends 98 years in the ocean, 20 months as ice, about two weeks in lakes and rivers, and less than a week in the atmosphere. (United States Geological Survey)

In fact, one inch of rain falling on one acre of land is equal to about 27,154 gallons of water. (United States Geological Survey)

While this process can purify and clean Earth's water, when we pollute our freshwater, it can be a long-term problem. Groundwater can stay polluted up to several thousand years. Also consider that:

- At least 1 billion people must walk three hours or more to obtain drinking water. For example, in Mexico, 15 percent of the population must haul or carry water. Even closer to home, nearly 2 percent of U.S. homes still do not have running water. (National Geographic Society)

- Households turn on their faucets an average of 70 times daily. It is estimated that up to 50 percent of the water families use could be saved by implementing simple conservation methods. (National Drinking Water Alliance)

- The 250 million U.S. residents living today have access to about the same amount of water that all 4 million U.S. residents did 200 years ago. (National Drinking Water Alliance)

- If present consumption patterns continue, two out of every three people on Earth will live in water-stressed conditions by the year 2025. (United Nations Environment Program)

How to Protect Freshwater

Conservation

Limit the time you spend watering the lawn, showering, running the garbage disposal and running faucets.

Fix leaky faucets. One drip a second can waste 2,000 gallons a year.

Buy water-efficient plumbing fixtures. If all plumbing fixtures in the United States were replaced with water-conserving fixtures, we could save 3.4 to 8.4 billion gallons of water a day.

Use moderate amounts of low phosphate cleaners and detergents. Eliminate the use of drain cleaners. Use recycled products.

Protection

Wash your car on the lawn instead of the driveway. Water that lands on an impermeable surface, such as pavement, flows through the watershed to the nearest body of water and deposits its contaminants. Your lawn, on the other hand, can trap and break down most foreign agents.

Limit the use of lawn fertilizers, and be sure to use only phosphorus-free fertilizer. Most lawns already have sufficient phosphorus and when more is added, it runs through the watershed and causes algae growth in surrounding lakes.

Education

Realize that many human activities affect water quality. Wetlands, groundwater and waterways are destroyed by construction, polluted runoff and spills. Population growth only intensifies these impacts.

Become an educated consumer. Buy recycled, environmentally friendly products.

Learn to recognize and become knowledgeable about aquatic nuisance species. Exotic invaders (such as Eurasian watermilfoil, zebra mussels and thousands more) cause habitat destruction, decrease biological diversity and cause millions of dollars of damage in the United States each year.

Transition

Rethink your daily habits and help reduce water pollution and water use. Bike, walk or carpool to help reduce the production of toxic air pollutants that can cause acid rain.

Turn down the water heater temperature and home thermostat to reduce your energy usage and help curb pollutants that cause acid rain.

Finally, share your knowledge with others. Try to remember that our actions have a widespread impact on the lasting quality of freshwater resources. We can, and must, make a difference.

http://freshwater.org/index.php/programs/whats-new/141-water-facts

The Future of Freshwater: Part I

Over half of the human body is made up of water and a human cannot survive longer than a week without it. Water is the single most important component for sustaining life; and we are running out of it. Technically, water has no way of leaving our planet. Each molecule goes through the water cycle infinite times. It precipitates, then eventually evaporates and then precipitates again. The problem is that freshwater demand is increasing to levels higher than the supply can support.

The world population is growing at an annual rate of approximately 1.3% while the demand for freshwater is growing at 3.5%. If freshwater supply remains unchanged, but the demand is rising, the result is an imbalance in the supply and demand. That imbalance could eventually lead to disastrous outcomes including the fall of agriculture.



Issues hurting the imbalance

There are a few big issues that are widening the gap between the supply and demand of freshwater. The main concerns include:

- Serve drought in many parts of the world
- A rising global population
- A growing freshwater consumption rate
- A failing infrastructure for freshwater
- A decrease in water levels of lakes, rivers and streams

These issues are some of the main reasons why the demand for freshwater is rising so quickly. For instance, according to The Earth Policy Institute, the world's demand for water has tripled over the last 50 years, and is now on pace to double every 20 years.

Issues helping to solve the imbalance

There are a few methods to solve the imbalance of freshwater supply and demand. Either supply must grow, or demand must decrease. Here are the realistic solutions to the imbalance:

- Desalination
- Freshwater pumping
- Genetically modified foods
- Filtration systems

These few solutions will greatly affect the way the world uses water in the future. Because irrigation accounts for roughly 40% of all freshwater use (USGS), the agricultural community might have to make some changes. For instance, by genetically modifying soybean seeds, soybeans could grow in dryer climates and yields can be boosted. This would in turn relieve some pressure on the rest of the agricultural community and it could be done without using anymore water.

Change is imminent for freshwater's future. Freshwater cannot be taken for granted any longer because there is no substitute for it. What solution is best fit to solve the imbalance of freshwater supply and demand? It is all going to depend on what processes are most economical and able to last in the long-run.

Read more about freshwater, agriculture, and farmland at Farmland Forecast (http://farmlandforecast.colvin-co.com/).